Exports to both countries from the province fell between 14 and 23% after several years of growth.
The turbulence that experts talk about regarding the trade war between the United States and China is already reflected in Albacete's foreign trade. If it is established that said war has already completed 15 months of life, the balance of exports generated in the province destined for both countries confirms that the business is going to less.
The Foreign Trade database of the Tax Agency allows you to see country by country where and how much Albacete companies sell products or services in other markets. To the United States, the fourth country to which the province exports the most, goods worth 2018 million euros were sold in 82, 14% less than in 2017. In the previous year the volume of business had grown by more than 30% . Footwear is what Albacete exports the most to the North American country, almost 30 million euros of business.
As for China, its role as a destination for exports from Albacete is minor. Exports in 2018 were below 14 million euros, but the figure represents 23% less turnover compared to the previous year. Wine and derivatives is what the province exports the most to the Asian country, over 7 million.
The situation also includes changes in what Albacete buys from these countries. In the case of China, Albacete buys more than it sells, because in 2018 it acquired products and services in China worth almost 84 million euros, but it is 3,4% less than in the previous one. In the United States, the trade balance is positive, the province sells more than what it buys, because imports remained below 47 million euros.
The aforementioned turbulence and its impact not only in these markets, but throughout the world, are seen as a factor of concern for those who from the province have part of their business in other countries, not only for those who export, but also for those who import. and buy abroad.
A rise in the price of oil if there is a conflict in Iran will also have consequences
THE PERSPECTIVES. Iván Torres, president of Adiex, the multisectoral Association of Importers and Exporters of Albacete, explained that these declines in business are a sign of a general trend: "The behavior is logical in terms of the illogical situation we have, the trade war is a very globalized fact, it affects everyone, especially because technological components are being attacked and what has to do with steel and aluminum, and that affects any element that includes sheet metal, automotive components, machinery in its construction... Between that, and knowing if tariffs go up, as well as the fact that the European Union does not have a clear trend, creates a climate of uncertainty, and there are commercial operations that are greatly affected, both by the local seller who may be oriented to other markets, such as the customers themselves, who see how the purchase price becomes more expensive. Torres stressed that business in general is affected by this particular situation in these two countries, but it affects all foreign trade: "These figures are declining almost everywhere in the world, except in specific cases, for all items and all regions”. Making forecasts about how long this situation will last leads to explaining that "if there is no stable environment, business does not flow as much, with doubts, everyone keeps their clothes, everyone is more prudent, more cautious," explained the president of Adiex.
Although the main markets of the province are from the European Union (France, Germany and Italy were the first destinations in 2018), the president of Adiex has no doubt that this general climate is noticeable in the total evolution of exports and imports. According to calculations published at the beginning of the month by ICEX, the public Export and Investment entity, the province will export a value of 1.100 million euros this year, 7,7% more than in 2018, but there are some conditions that may affect that figure. Iván Torres pointed out that "ICEX does a good job of estimating and is usually prudent, that figure may be achievable, because also this situation with China and the United States, or with Brexit, is not new", but he did allude to the effect of "The movements regarding Iran and that threat from the United States of an attack increases uncertainty, the price of oil will possibly go up again, and there will be a brake on the international economy again." This condition can lead to the correction of the calculation made by ICEX, commented Iván Torres, who also spoke about which alternative markets are sought by companies that want to have other assets: "There is always talk of emerging economies, India is one of the markets that It plans to be at the level of China and the United States, even going above it. Also Turkey, due to its proximity and size, is interesting, although perhaps more is imported, and in Latin America Brazil and Mexico are target countries."
